State-owned oil retailer Indian Oil Corporation's (IOC) first quarter standalone profit might grow more than 3-fold to Rs 4,127 crore as compared with Rs 1,235.6 crore in corresponding period. The oil marketing company had disclosed a high refining inventory loss amounting to Rs 3,300 crore in Q4FY16, and product inventory loss of Rs 1,100 crore. Therefore, sequential earnings rise in Q1 may be sharp. With oil prices gathering momentum, any inventory losses are unlikely in Q1. Thus, results may seem good on Q-o-Q basis. Revenue is seen to grow 20.6 percent to Rs 97,032 crore throughout the quarter against Rs 80,449.6 crore in previous quarter. Operating profit may double to Rs 8,186 crore from Rs 4,044.3 crore and margin may widen 340 basis points to 8.4 percent on sequential basis.
Here are the things to to watch out for , firstly gross refining margin (GRM) is expected at USD 4.6 a barrel versus USD 3/barrel Q-o-Q, USD 10.8/barrel Y-o-Y . Secondly the company may surprise with inventory gains and hence need to see inventory gains impact on IOC GRMs. Thirdly marketing margins are hoped to remain resilient. Fourthly Refinery throughput (MMT) in Q1 is expected to gain 20 percent QoQ and 9 percent Y-o-Y. Fifthly assumption is that the government will supply full support for under-recoveries / direct benefit transfer for LPG (DBTL) losses. Lastly impact of forex and inventory change is to be taken into consideration and the company will also announce bonus issue.
As of now, IOC share price is trading at Rs. 576.80 touching the day’s high and low at Rs. 580.60 and Rs. 574.10.
IOC is among the top 500 shares identified by Dynamic Levels for this quarter among the 1700 shares listed on NSE. IOC share price touched its 52 week high value at Rs. 593.35 (08-Aug-16) while the 52 week low is seen at Rs. 344.90 (12-Feb-16). Snippet of today’s session shows that approximately 12,83,953 shares exchanged hands, as per NSE.
To gather information on the closest support and resistance levels refer to IOC share price history.